Seek .(US:SKLTY) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-26 10:21Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in prices, with an average drop exceeding 30% across the country, affecting both second and first-tier cities. Various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been implemented, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates and down payment ratios [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Future Housing Prices - The number of first-time homebuyers is decreasing, primarily due to an aging population and a reluctance among younger generations to take on substantial mortgage debt, leading to a preference for renting over buying [4][6]. - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support current high housing prices, as many households have lowered their income growth expectations amid economic downturns, resulting in a more rational approach to home buying [8][10]. - The housing market is in a long-term state of oversupply, with 6 billion existing homes capable of accommodating 30 billion people, and 96% of families already owning at least one home, indicating a significant surplus [10][12]. Group 2: Impending Taxation and Market Predictions - The introduction of property taxes is anticipated, with plans to expand pilot programs in cities like Shanghai and Chongqing, which will increase the holding costs for families with multiple properties, potentially leading to a surge in property sales and further downward pressure on prices [12]. - Predictions suggest that housing prices will vary by city, with areas currently experiencing significant price bubbles expected to see larger declines. It is advised that first-time buyers take advantage of current favorable policies, while those looking for investment properties should consider waiting, as prices may drop by 30% to 50% over the next five years [12].