BABA(US:BABA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-26 13:27Market Overview - The US dollar index showed a "weak first, strong later" trend this week, driven by the repricing of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and better-than-expected macro data [2] - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, maintaining above $3,700 despite a drop after reaching a high of $3,790 [2] - Non-US currencies, including the euro, pound, Australian dollar, and yen, all recorded declines against the dollar due to its strength [2] Oil Market - International oil prices are expected to record the largest weekly gain in nearly three months, with both WTI and Brent crude oil rising over 4% due to attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and unexpected declines in US crude oil inventories [3] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a significant downturn, with Ethereum dropping below $4,000, marking the start of a technical bear market, and Bitcoin falling below $110,000 [3] Investment Insights - Citigroup believes the gold bull market may continue in the short term, while Deutsche Bank indicates that the continuous highs in gold prices reflect underlying market fears [6] - Barclays notes that despite negative factors, the dollar remains resilient [6] Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the dual risks of monetary policy, stating that overly loose policy could lead to inflation rebound while overly tight policy could harm employment [8] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the future path of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for further easing while others remain cautious [10][12] Trade and Tariff Policies - President Trump announced plans to impose high tariffs on various imported goods, including a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals produced by companies not building factories in the US [12][14] - The US Commerce Department initiated investigations into imports of robots and industrial machinery under the Trade Expansion Act [14] Corporate Developments - Alibaba's stock reached a four-year high, driven by the release of its Qwen3-Max model and plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure [28] - OpenAI and Nvidia signed a strategic cooperation agreement to build AI data centers, with Nvidia planning to invest $100 billion [23][24] - Tether Holdings is negotiating to raise $15 to $20 billion through private financing, potentially reaching a valuation of $500 billion [29][30] Mining Sector - Freeport-McMoRan announced a production halt at its Grasberg mine due to a landslide, which is expected to significantly impact copper prices [27]