摩根大通：美股年底冲击7000点前，面临五大短期下行风险

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley projects that the S&P 500 index may reach the 7000-point mark by the end of the year, but investors should be cautious of several short-term risks that could lead to market pullbacks [1] Short-term Downside Risks - Seasonal Factors: Historical data shows that in years where the S&P 500 has gained between 5%-25% by the end of August, the market performance in September and October tends to be lackluster, with only about a 50% chance of positive returns [2] - Excessive Rebound: The current rebound since April has been stronger than all years except 2020, compared to other low points since 2015 [3] - Long-term Lack of Pullback: The S&P 500 has not experienced a significant pullback for 93 days, matching the longest record since late 2016 [4] - Overheated Retail Sentiment: Retail investor sentiment is at a high, nearing levels not seen in a year, which can sometimes signal market reversals [5] - Macro Events Realization: The market has priced in a lot of expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, suggesting limited room for further easing in the short term [6] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive long-term outlook for U.S. equities, citing several reasons for potential further gains by year-end: - Seasonal factors may actually favor gains, as historically, 42 out of 47 years with similar early-year performance saw increases averaging 6.2% from September to December [7] - Investor positioning is beginning to break a long-term downward trend, indicating potential upward movement for the S&P 500 in the next one to two years [7] - The number of stocks with high short positions remains near multi-year highs, while those with low short positions are at a decade low, suggesting persistent bearish sentiment that could fuel a short squeeze [7] - Historical trends show that stock markets typically perform well in the six months following the Federal Reserve's "preemptive" rate cuts [8] - Although recent inflows into U.S. stock ETFs have not been strong, there is usually a seasonal uptick in such inflows towards year-end [8] Economic Resilience - The resilience of the U.S. economy is supported by record consumer cash reserves, defined as funds in checking, savings, and money market accounts, which reached a record $21.8 trillion by Q2 2025, significantly higher than $14.8 trillion in Q4 2019 [9] - All income groups, except the lowest 20%, have seen inflation-adjusted cash holdings increase by 7% to 25% compared to 2019, with checking account balances surging from $1.53 trillion in Q4 2019 to $5.42 trillion in Q2 2025, indicating funds available for near-term consumption [9] - This ample cash supply has driven consumer spending growth, contributing to an average real GDP growth of 2.9% from Q3 2022 to Q4 2024 [11] - Total net worth of U.S. households reached a new high of $167.2 trillion in Q2 2025, over 50% higher than in Q4 2019 [11] Investment Strategy - Based on a "tactically bullish" stance, Morgan Stanley advises treating any market pullbacks as buying opportunities [12]