摩根大通：美股年底冲击7000点前，面临五大下行风险

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's latest outlook suggests that while the S&P 500 index may approach the 7000-point mark by year-end, investors should remain cautious of several potential short-term risks that could lead to market pullbacks [1] Short-term Downside Risks - Seasonal Factors: Historical data indicates that in years where the S&P 500 has gained between 5%-25% by the end of August, the market performance in September and October tends to be lackluster, with only about a 50% chance of positive returns [2] - Excessive Rebound: The current rebound since April has surpassed all years except 2020, indicating a potentially unsustainable upward momentum [3] - Long-term Lack of Pullback: The S&P 500 has not experienced a significant pullback of 3% or more for 93 days, matching the longest streak since late 2016 [4] - Overheated Retail Sentiment: Retail investor sentiment is nearing a one-year high, which can sometimes signal a market reversal [5] - Macro Events Realization: The market has already priced in significant expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, suggesting limited room for further easing in the short term [6] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, JPMorgan maintains a positive long-term outlook for U.S. equities, citing several supporting factors for potential gains by year-end: - Seasonal factors may actually favor gains, as historically, 42 out of 47 years with similar early-year performance saw increases averaging 6.2% from September to December [7] - The firm's positioning model indicates that investor positions are beginning to break a long-term downtrend, suggesting further upside for both positions and the S&P 500 over the next one to two years [7] - The Russell 3000 index shows a high number of stocks with short positions (20%-30% of float), while stocks with very low short positions are at a ten-year low, indicating persistent bearish sentiment that could fuel a short squeeze [7] - Historical trends show that stock markets typically perform well in the six months following the Fed's initiation of "preemptive" rate cuts [8] - Although recent inflows into U.S. stock ETFs have not been strong, there is usually a seasonal uptick in such inflows towards year-end [8] Economic Resilience - JPMorgan emphasizes that the resilience of the U.S. economy is a key foundation for its optimistic outlook, supported by record consumer cash reserves, which reached a record $21.8 trillion by Q2 2025, significantly higher than $14.8 trillion in Q4 2019 [9] - Cash holdings, adjusted for inflation, have increased by 7%-25% across all income groups except the lowest 20%, with checking account balances surging from $1.53 trillion in Q4 2019 to $5.42 trillion in Q2 2025, indicating funds available for near-term consumption [9] - This ample cash supply has driven consumer spending growth, contributing to an average real GDP growth of 2.9% from Q3 2022 to Q4 2024, with total household net worth reaching a new high of $167.2 trillion by Q2 2025, up over 50% from Q4 2019 [11]