万腾外汇：美联储10月降息将面临更多的变数

Group 1 - Recent economic data and cautious signals from Federal Reserve officials have increased market expectations for a pause in interest rate cuts during the upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [1] - The weekly unemployment claims data released on Thursday supports the notion that the labor market has not experienced "serious deterioration" [3] - Two voting members of the rate-setting committee expressed doubts about the necessity for further rate cuts, primarily due to inflation not reaching the 2% target [3] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in October has decreased from 93% to 83%, although many economists still maintain the expectation for a cut [3] - Jefferies Group's chief U.S. economist predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, citing an increase in companies reducing labor costs through layoffs [3] - Tim Duy from SGH Macro Advisors suggests that the market should not overinterpret the cautious statements from regional Fed presidents, as the policy direction is primarily guided by Chairman Powell and the Washington board [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist states that unless there is a significant change in labor market momentum, a rate cut in October is likely [4] - There is a risk that the upcoming employment report may not be released due to potential government shutdown, which could hinder the assessment of economic conditions for the Federal Reserve [4] - Nomura Securities warns that if the government shuts down, key economic indicators such as the monthly employment report, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data may not be published on time, complicating the Fed's evaluation of the economy [4]