段永平谈茅台估值思路，模糊的正确胜过精确的错误

Core Viewpoint - The discussions led by investor Duan Yongping emphasize the long-term value and investment potential of Kweichow Moutai, highlighting the importance of understanding cash flow and valuation models in investment decisions [1][4][7]. Group 1: Valuation Insights - Duan Yongping suggests that while cash flow discounting has many variables and assumptions, it can still be applied to Kweichow Moutai due to its relatively stable variables [2][4]. - He used a discount rate of 1.5%, indicating that even under conservative growth assumptions, Kweichow Moutai's valuation remains attractive, potentially outperforming government bond yields [7][10]. - The valuation logic reflects a comparison with market costs of capital, emphasizing the significance of opportunity costs in investment decisions [7]. Group 2: Business Fundamentals - Kweichow Moutai has demonstrated robust fundamentals, achieving a revenue growth of 9.16% and a net profit growth of 8.89% in the first half of 2025, despite industry challenges [10]. - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio and strong cash flow, reinforcing its competitive advantage in the market [10]. - Kweichow Moutai's systematic strategy in market value management, including share buybacks and dividends, aims to stabilize short-term stock prices while enhancing long-term value creation [10]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping emphasizes that the essence of value investing lies in seeking "fuzzy correctness" rather than precise errors, encouraging investors to focus on long-term value rather than short-term price fluctuations [7][10]. - He stresses the importance of accurately predicting future earnings over obsessing about discount rates, advocating for a rational and objective investment approach [8][10].