CATL(SZ:300750) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-28 13:58Market Overview - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced significant volatility from June to September, with prices soaring from 65,000 yuan/ton to 90,000 yuan/ton, followed by a rapid decline to around 75,000 yuan/ton [1][2] - In the context of the global energy revolution, China's lithium battery shipments are expected to reach 776 GWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68%, with energy storage batteries growing at 128% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The carbonated lithium industry is facing a de-stocking trend, with upward pressure from high inventory and hedging demand, while seasonal demand provides some support [1][4] - The production costs of lithium carbonate vary significantly among companies due to differences in processing methods and raw material sources [2][3] Company Performance - Salt Lake Co. (000792.SZ) reported a net profit of 2.509 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.24%, benefiting from the cost advantages of salt lake lithium extraction [3] - Companies primarily extracting lithium from ore, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), reported significant losses in the first half of the year, with net profits of -841 million yuan and -531 million yuan, respectively [3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the lithium price will continue to fluctuate due to the balance of supply and demand, with the focus on the resumption of production at the Jiangxi lithium mines and the status of seven other mines [4] - The solid-state battery market is expected to significantly increase the demand for lithium carbonate, with projections indicating that solid-state batteries could consume 50% more lithium than traditional liquid electrolyte batteries [5][6] Technological Developments - The Chinese government has prioritized solid-state battery technology, aiming for significant advancements by 2026 and 2030, which could reshape the lithium market landscape [5][7] - The integration of AI technology is anticipated to accelerate the commercialization of solid-state lithium batteries, although liquid lithium batteries are expected to remain dominant in the market for the next 5 to 10 years [7]