IBM(US:IBM) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-29 01:37Core Insights - The news highlights the significant impact of quantum computing commercialization on IBM's stock price, which surged following HSBC's successful use of IBM's quantum processor for bond trading optimization [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On September 25, IBM's market capitalization increased by nearly $13 billion, with the stock price rising over 5% after HSBC's announcement [2]. - Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that the market's enthusiastic response may have overestimated the future potential of quantum technology, which is still in its early stages [2][9]. Group 2: Quantum Computing Performance - HSBC reported a 34% performance improvement in predicting the probability of winning bids in the European corporate bond market using IBM's Heron quantum processor compared to traditional computing resources [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of early commercial applications in demonstrating the value proposition of quantum computing [4]. Group 3: IBM's Market Position - IBM is identified as the clear leader in the quantum market, possessing the largest and most extensive advanced quantum computing ecosystem [5]. - Since 2017, IBM has installed over 75 quantum systems globally, surpassing the total of all other quantum suppliers combined [7]. Group 4: Valuation Analysis - Morgan Stanley's reverse engineering analysis indicates that the market's valuation increase implies expectations of IBM selling approximately 265 quantum systems by 2029, priced at $13.3 million each [6][8]. - The analysis is based on multiple assumptions, including a 10% net profit margin and a 50x price-to-earnings ratio, highlighting the speculative nature of the current market sentiment [6][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The report concludes that while IBM and the quantum industry may achieve significant success by 2029, the current hype around quantum computing may not be justified as a substantial driver of stock prices today [9].