Investment Highlights - Company is covered for the first time by CICC with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 2.15, corresponding to 0.24x P/B for 2025/2026 and an upside potential of 28% [1] - Company is an important real estate development platform under Poly Group, demonstrating stable operational performance during the current downturn cycle [1] - The low valuation is a prerequisite, as the company's fundamentals have not been fairly priced due to previous impacts from "peer competition" and governance uncertainties [1] Operational Performance - Despite a 44% and 68% cumulative decline in new home sales nationally and among the top 100 developers from 2020 to 2024, the company's total sales remained stable at RMB 50-60 billion, improving its industry ranking by 50 positions to 17th [1] - The company is expected to achieve its annual sales target of RMB 50 billion, with a possibility of slight year-on-year growth [1] Valuation and Market Position - The reasonable valuation range is estimated at 0.35-0.45x P/B based on NAV models and comparable companies in the industry [1] - The company possesses unique attributes such as being a central enterprise and a small-to-mid-cap stock, which are rare in the market [1] - The current trading at 0.17x P/B reflects a 63% discount to NAV, indicating high valuation potential [2] Catalysts and Future Outlook - Anticipated catalysts include potential outperformance in sales and land acquisition in Q4 2025, driven by policy support and improved operational performance [2] - The company is viewed as one of the few central enterprise real estate firms with high valuation cost-effectiveness, with expectations for operational improvements exceeding market forecasts [2]
保利置业(00119.HK)：藏器待时 锋芒渐露 高估值性价比央资房企