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高盛:美经济或重新加速,今明货币政策路径不同

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report indicates an increased likelihood of a U.S. economic acceleration, driven by a resilient labor market, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1] - The latest data on initial jobless claims shows improvement, leading Goldman Sachs' global investment research team to forecast a 2.6% GDP growth rate for the third quarter, which will support growth in the first half of next year [1] - The prospect of economic acceleration will influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, especially with the upcoming appointment of a new chair [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that the monetary policy path for 2025 and 2026 may differ significantly [1] - The firm predicts that the policy interest rate will gradually normalize to 3% - 3.5% for the remainder of this year, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in both October and December to avoid overly restricting the labor market [1] - Future monetary policy will heavily depend on the policy preferences of the new chair [1]