茅台估值新思路，段永平强调“客观”与“模糊的正确”

Core Viewpoint - The essence of value investing is being re-evaluated in the context of increasing market volatility, with investor Duan Yongping providing a new analytical framework for assessing the value of Moutai [1] Group 1: Valuation Methodology - Duan Yongping expressed skepticism about using discounted cash flow (DCF) for estimating enterprise value due to the numerous variables and assumptions involved, emphasizing the importance of business models and corporate culture [2] - Despite reservations about precise calculations, he suggested that Moutai's variables are relatively fewer, making it easier to estimate its value [4] - Using a conservative 1.5% discount rate based on bank interest and government bond yields, preliminary calculations indicate that Moutai could still offer good value even with minimal growth over the next decade, potentially outperforming government bond returns [4] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy highlighted by Duan Yongping is to prefer "vague correctness" over "precise errors," focusing on understanding Moutai's long-term value rather than fixating on discount rates [7] - He cautioned that blind optimism could be detrimental, advocating for rational analysis to uncover the true intrinsic value of enterprises [7] Group 3: Moutai's Market Performance - Moutai's strong market performance is attributed to its robust brand power, resilient distribution channels, and effective strategic transformations, with significant sales growth observed in recent months [9] - The company's financial performance is solid, with a reported revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, and a net profit increase of 8.89% [9] - Moutai's dividend policy is attractive, with a cumulative cash dividend of 64.672 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of around 80% [9] Group 4: Institutional Support and Long-term Outlook - As of the second quarter of 2025, fund companies held nearly 93 million shares of Moutai, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 2.3 million shares, indicating strong institutional interest [10] - Various institutions maintain "buy" or "increase" ratings for Moutai, recognizing its ability to adapt and maintain stable growth amidst industry pressures [10] - Moutai's unique brand scarcity, stable profit model, strong cash flow generation, and cultural value position it as a long-term investment with solid growth potential [10]