经济韧性降低衰退风险，高盛称美股应"逢跌买入"直至年末

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Goldman Sachs' strategist team is that global stock markets are expected to continue their upward trend before the end of the year, supported by U.S. economic resilience, favorable valuation levels, and a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, recommending investors adopt a "buy on dips" strategy for stocks [1][2] - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating for U.S. stocks to "overweight" for a three-month horizon, citing strong earnings growth, the Fed's accommodative policy without triggering a recession, and global fiscal policy easing as key reasons [1][2] - The optimistic outlook aligns with current market sentiment, driven by expectations of timely rate cuts by the Fed to avoid economic recession and the boost from the AI boom for tech giants, leading global stock markets to reach historical highs [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for stocks over the next 12 months, despite downgrading its credit rating from neutral to underweight, indicating that while stock valuations may exceed current levels, this poses constraints on credit [1][5] - The macro environment is deemed favorable for the stock market, with policy support identified as a key driver for stock price increases amid manageable recession risks [2] - The S&P 500 index target has been raised to 6,800 points, suggesting an additional upside of approximately 2% [2] Group 3 - Despite the bullish short-term recommendations, Goldman Sachs warns of existing risks in the market, including potential unexpected shocks to economic growth or interest rates, urging investors to remain vigilant [6] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to provide important insights, with analysts projecting a 7.1% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 constituent earnings for Q3, marking the smallest increase in two years, which may challenge market expectations [6] - The importance of diversification in investment strategies is emphasized, with a preference for international market diversification and maintaining a neutral stance across different regions to avoid concentrated risk exposure [6]