Nvidia(US:NVDA) Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun·2025-09-29 12:23Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 index achieving a return of +2.3% in September, significantly above the historical average of -0.6%, driven by the AI wave and optimistic forecasts from Wall Street firms for the index to exceed 7000 points [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The S&P 500 index is projected by Goldman Sachs to reach approximately 6800 points, 7000 points, and 7200 points over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, with return forecasts of +2%, +5%, and +8% [4]. - Morgan Stanley maintains a baseline scenario of 6500 points but acknowledges the increasing possibility of a bullish scenario reaching 7200 points, citing ongoing debates about labor market conditions [5]. - The S&P 500 has risen 14% year-to-date, with 54% of this increase attributed to earnings growth, 38% to valuation expansion, and 8% to dividends [6]. Group 2: AI Industry and Market Drivers - The AI industry is identified as the core driver of the current bull market, with its extensive ecosystem supporting sustained upward movement in the overall index [7]. - Recent strategic partnerships, such as NVIDIA's collaboration with OpenAI, have significantly influenced market sentiment, with NVIDIA committing up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's data center initiatives [8]. - OpenAI's valuation has surged to $500 billion, a 33-fold increase from two years ago, reflecting the growing importance of AI in the market [8]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Strategies - Despite concerns about overvaluation in AI-related stocks, the fundamental outlook remains positive due to relatively cheap capital and the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in a high-inflation environment [10]. - Market participants face a dilemma: either chase high prices with the risk of buying at the top or wait for a correction, which may lead to missed opportunities [10].