高盛集团：上调股票评级，标普500三月或涨2%

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its stock rating, predicting a continued rise in global stock markets by the end of the year due to strong U.S. performance, supportive valuations, and a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy [1] Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The strategist team, including Christian Müller-Gleissmann, has raised the stock holding rating to "overweight" for the next three months, indicating that stocks perform well during periods of policy support in the late cycle [1] - Strong earnings growth, Federal Reserve easing policies, and global fiscal loosening are expected to support the stock market, with a recommendation to buy on dips before year-end [1] - The team has downgraded the credit asset rating from "neutral" to "underweight" in the short term while maintaining a bullish outlook on stocks for the next 12 months [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and avoidance of recession has driven global stock markets to new highs, with enthusiasm for artificial intelligence boosting tech giants' stock prices [1] - Many institutions have raised their target levels for the S&P 500 index, with Goldman Sachs' U.S. strategist team projecting a further 2% increase to 6800 points over the next three months [1] Group 3: Earnings and Risks - The U.S. labor market is cooling, shifting market focus to the upcoming earnings season, with analysts expecting a year-on-year earnings growth of 7.1% for S&P 500 constituents in Q3, marking the smallest increase in two years [1] - Goldman Sachs' strategist team warns of potential risks from growth falling short of expectations or interest rate volatility, maintaining a "neutral" rating across regional markets and emphasizing a preference for diversified international asset allocation [1]