Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-29 23:48Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the U.S. economy is facing an increasing likelihood of re-acceleration, driven by resilient labor markets, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1][2][6] - Key indicators show strong performance in the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs' U.S. Macro Economic Surprise Index recently surging and initial jobless claims providing positive signals [2] - The report identifies several factors contributing to this economic re-acceleration, including loose financial conditions, strong performance of risk assets, expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a weaker dollar [3] Group 2 - Positive fiscal policy impulses are expected in the first half of next year, alongside continued capital expenditure growth in the artificial intelligence sector [4] - The U.S. consumer base remains solid, and the impact of deregulation should not be overlooked [5] - The combination of these favorable factors increases the likelihood of unexpected economic growth next year [6] Group 3 - The monetary policy path will significantly depend on the new Federal Reserve chair, with contrasting scenarios for 2025 and 2026 [7] - Current statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicate that recent job growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a path towards normalizing policy rates closer to neutral levels (3-3.5% range) [7][8] - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario anticipates rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December of this year [7] Group 4 - Two core questions arise regarding the Federal Reserve's actions: whether rates will be lowered below neutral levels even if the economy is healthy, and whether the Fed can raise rates during a potential Trump administration to counter economic overheating [8] - Two distinct trading strategies are proposed based on market expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy response: going long on U.S. long-term breakeven inflation rates, gold, and holding risk assets if low policy rates are expected, or anticipating a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve if the Fed tightens policy in response to economic re-acceleration [9] - The current market measures of mid-2026 rate expectations indicate that the market has not fully priced in the risk of rate hikes, with the SFRM6/M8 spread hovering around -5 basis points [9]