BUD APAC(HK:01876) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-29 08:16Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, with anticipated further slowdown in the Chinese market due to luxury consumption policies and the impact of food delivery services on online consumption [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The third quarter in China is expected to see a decline compared to Q2, influenced by anti-luxury policies and significant online consumption drag from food delivery services [1] - Budweiser has high exposure in the on-trade channel, which is expected to be affected by ongoing destocking pressures impacting sales and brand mix [1] - The short-term EBITDA pressure in the Chinese market is anticipated to increase [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability - Goldman Sachs forecasts weak sales in Q3 2025 for Budweiser APAC in China and South Korea, partially offset by strong momentum in India and favorable average selling prices in South Korea [1] - The Chinese market is facing profit margin pressures due to policy headwinds [1] - The firm updated its foreign exchange impact on sales, predicting a 12.6% decline in organic revenue and a 15.8% drop in normalized EBITDA for Q3 [1] - The net profit for Q3 is expected to be $158 million, down from $201 million in Q3 2024 [1] Group 3: Full Year Outlook - For the full year 2025, Budweiser APAC is expected to see a 2.1% growth in organic EBITDA in East Asia driven by average selling price increases, favorable brand and channel mix, and cost efficiencies [1] - In West Asia, organic EBITDA is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year due to ongoing operational leverage decline and channel mix offsetting cost tailwinds [1]