Industry Insights - The coconut water market in China is expected to continue its rapid growth, with a projected increase from $49.7 million in 2019 to $1,018.1 million by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 82.9% [1] - Over the next five years, the market is anticipated to maintain a strong growth rate of 20.2%, reaching $2,550.4 million by 2029 [1] - Key drivers of this growth include rising health awareness, improved distribution channels, expanded consumer demographics, and customized products [1] - The company is projected to hold a 33.9% market share in the coconut water beverage sector in China by 2024, significantly outpacing the second-largest competitor by over seven times [1] - Per capita consumption of coconut water in China, Hong Kong, and the U.S. is expected to be 0.1, 0.3, and 1.2 liters respectively in 2024, indicating potential for threefold growth in mainland China compared to Hong Kong and twelvefold compared to the U.S. [1] Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of $158 million in 2024, marking an 80.29% year-on-year increase, with a profit of $33 million, up 98.85% [2] - The revenue contributions from the IF and Innococo brands were $131 million and $26 million, accounting for 83.31% and 16.64% of total revenue respectively [2] - Revenue from mainland China and Hong Kong was $146 million and $7 million, representing 92.39% and 4.57% of total revenue [2] - Approximately 50% of the company's sales in mainland China were distributed through online channels, with Tmall, JD, and Douyin contributing 50%, 20%, and 15% of online sales respectively [2] - The company's gross margins improved from 34.70% in 2023 to 36.70% in 2024, while net margins increased from 19.16% to 21.13% [2] - The high net profit margin is attributed to low operating expenses due to the company's light asset model and a stable competitive landscape [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $200.91 million, $271.34 million, and $355.23 million in 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.44%, 35.06%, and 30.91% respectively [3] - Projected net profits for the same years are $38.59 million, $55.93 million, and $74.71 million, with growth rates of 15.83%, 44.93%, and 33.58% [3] - Corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $0.14, $0.21, and $0.28, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 27, 18, and 14 times [3] - The company is given a "buy" rating based on these projections [3]
IFBH(6603.HK)：椰子水空间广阔 公司产品市场品牌端持续加码、龙头地位显著