Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-02 06:34Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, indicating that the recent surge in gold prices is likely to continue, driven by unexpected strong inflows from Western individual investors into gold ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Inflows and Investor Behavior - The recent increase in gold prices is significantly attributed to strong demand from Western investors for gold ETFs, with September inflows reaching 109 tons, far exceeding Goldman Sachs' model prediction of 17 tons [2]. - The report highlights that speculative positions have contributed minimally to the recent price increase, suggesting that the current rally is driven by committed buyers rather than short-term speculators [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs notes that the increase in Western ETF holdings contributed approximately 3 percentage points to the 14% rise in gold prices since August 26 [2]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [4]. - The firm emphasizes that the relatively small size of the gold market means that even a minor shift in asset allocation from fixed income to gold could lead to significant price increases [3]. - The report outlines that gold serves as an attractive hedge in scenarios of economic slowdown and increasing macroeconomic policy concerns, enhancing its appeal for portfolio diversification [3].