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不止4300美元!高盛:黄金涨幅或超预期

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached record highs for three consecutive days, nearing the $3900 mark, with Goldman Sachs indicating that the upward trend may continue due to significant inflows from Western individual investors [1][2] - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the recent inflow into gold ETFs has far exceeded model expectations, suggesting a shift of funds from traditional assets like fixed income to gold, which is seen as a key driver for rising gold prices [1][2] - Since late August, gold prices have increased by over 10%, driven primarily by steadfast buyers rather than speculative short-term funds, enhancing the sustainability of this upward trend [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the strong demand for gold ETFs from Western investors is a key driver behind the recent surge in gold prices, with September inflows reaching 109 tons, significantly higher than the model's predicted 17 tons [2] - Speculative positions have contributed minimally to the recent price increase, indicating that the current upward movement is largely supported by committed individual buyers [2] - Although central bank gold purchase data for September is not yet available, Goldman Sachs anticipates a resurgence in central bank demand following a quiet summer period, which may have contributed significantly to the recent price increase [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its baseline price forecast for gold, now predicting it could reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4300 by the end of 2026, citing low speculative involvement as a reason for a more solid price foundation [3] - The relatively small size of the gold market, compared to private holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, means that even a minor diversification shift from fixed income assets could lead to significant price increases for gold [3] - Gold is viewed as an attractive investment option due to its ability to hedge against tail risks in scenarios of economic slowdown and increasing macroeconomic policy concerns in developed markets [3]