BUD APAC(HK:01876) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-03 01:55Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.50, citing that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to report a 6.4% year-on-year decline in group revenue for Q3 2025, indicating a slow overall recovery; adjusted EBITDA is projected to decrease by 14.4%, and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to be USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The core pressure on performance is attributed to a weak on-premise channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1][2] Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - In the Asia Pacific West region, the on-premise channel in mainland China is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms, leading to a soft recovery in the restaurant channel; inventory reduction efforts negatively impacted sales [2] - The Asia Pacific East region, particularly South Korea, is expected to perform relatively well with slight revenue declines; unit sales are projected to decrease in low single digits, while average prices are expected to grow in mid-single digits, with adjusted EBITDA likely to see slight growth [3]