Apple(US:AAPL) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-03 09:27Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley presents an optimistic outlook for Apple, driven by strong early demand for the iPhone 17 and the potential for a more robust iPhone 18 cycle fueled by upgrades and significant product innovations [1][4]. Group 1: iPhone 17 Performance - The initial demand for the iPhone 17 has exceeded expectations, with significant evidence including extended shipping wait times and increased production orders [3][4]. - As of September 30, the wait times for most iPhone 17 models have increased year-over-year, particularly for the base model in China, which has seen a wait time nearly one month longer than the previous year [3]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for Apple's fiscal year 2026, increasing iPhone shipment expectations by 7.5 million units to 243 million units, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.3% [3][10]. Group 2: Future Outlook for iPhone 18 - The focus is shifting towards the iPhone 18 cycle, which is expected to be more impactful, with approximately 1 billion older iPhones needing upgrades to fully utilize new features [6][8]. - Apple is anticipated to launch its first foldable iPhone, described as the most innovative product in years, alongside six new models in fiscal year 2027 [8]. - Morgan Stanley projects that iPhone shipments in fiscal year 2027 will reach 253 million units, surpassing previous estimates and market consensus [8][10]. Group 3: Financial Forecast Adjustments - Based on the strong demand signals, Morgan Stanley has adjusted its financial forecasts for Apple, raising the earnings per share (EPS) estimate for fiscal year 2026 by 2% to $8.14 and for fiscal year 2027 by 6% to $9.30, both above market expectations [10].