海外对冲基金：AI投机狂潮接近尾声，重仓铀铜等商品对冲泡沫风险

Core Insights - Selwood Asset Management warns that the current AI-driven market frenzy is nearing its peak, potentially leading to a rapid collapse [1] - The firm is adjusting its investment strategy to mitigate risks associated with the AI bubble, focusing on energy-related commodities instead of shorting volatile tech stocks [1][4] Group 1: AI Market Concerns - The CIO of Selwood Asset Management, Karim Moussalem, believes that the trading in the AI sector resembles historical speculative bubbles driven by retail investors [1][2] - Moussalem expresses concern that the energy costs associated with AI are becoming a significant vulnerability, with rising energy prices potentially limiting AI's expansion capabilities [1][3] - He highlights that the profitability of AI-related companies may be overstated due to optimistic depreciation methods for capital expenditures, suggesting that profits could be significantly overestimated if a more realistic depreciation period is applied [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In response to the perceived AI bubble and energy constraints, Selwood Asset Management is actively investing in energy markets, particularly uranium, which is viewed as a stable investment opportunity [4] - The firm believes that the demand for stable and high-capacity energy sources for AI data centers will drive interest in uranium, which is currently undervalued [4] - Moussalem acknowledges the challenges of shorting overvalued tech stocks due to retail investor enthusiasm, making energy-related assets a more prudent hedge strategy [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The concerns raised by Moussalem resonate with other seasoned investors, such as Leon Cooperman, who notes that the market is at the end of a bull cycle, with bubbles forming during this phase [5] - Georges Debbas from BNP Paribas also expresses caution, indicating that questions surrounding AI investments will increase as companies face low returns despite significant investments [5]