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Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant challenges faced by Mengniu Dairy, as evidenced by its declining revenue and profit figures, marking a critical period for the company in the competitive dairy industry [1][14]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mengniu reported a revenue of 41.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.0455 billion yuan, down 16.4% [1]. - This marks the second consecutive year of declining revenue and net profit for Mengniu, with the current revenue level falling short of the 51.12 billion yuan reported in the same period of 2023, indicating a nearly 10 billion yuan reduction [1]. - The operating profit margin was 8.5%, and the gross profit margin was 41.7%, reflecting some resilience in profitability despite the revenue and profit declines [1]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry is characterized by the principle that "milk prices determine profits," making fluctuations in the upstream raw milk market a core risk for dairy companies [1]. - In the first half of 2025, Mengniu faced severe pressures from cyclical downturns and cost transmission, which directly impacted profit performance [1][2]. - The price of raw milk has dropped nearly 30% since reaching a peak in September 2021, severely affecting Mengniu's joint venture farms [1]. Operational Issues - Mengniu's joint venture, Modern Dairy, reported a net loss of 913.5 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with Mengniu bearing 544.5 million yuan of this loss, which is a fourfold increase compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. - The ongoing cycle of "price decline - capacity maintenance - loss expansion" is expected to persist in the short term, as leading dairy companies continue to increase production despite falling prices [4][5]. - Although Mengniu's gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7%, this was primarily due to product structure optimization and cost control rather than direct benefits from lower raw milk prices [5]. Revenue Structure - The liquid milk segment, which accounts for nearly 80% of Mengniu's revenue, saw a revenue decline of over 10% in the first half of 2025, reducing its share of total revenue from 81.2% in 2024 to 77.4% [6]. - The decline in liquid milk sales is attributed to both volume and price drops, compounded by a lack of innovation in product offerings [6][8]. - The overall dairy product output in China decreased by 1% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a broader industry trend affecting Mengniu [6]. Strategic Challenges - Mengniu's diversification strategy, aimed at mitigating risks from its core business, has faced significant obstacles, with the international business still in a "burning cash for market" phase [9][12]. - The company has identified solid dairy products and high-value raw materials as key areas for diversification, but the execution has been slow and lacks competitive barriers [11]. - Mengniu's international operations have not yet achieved profitability, with significant investments in markets like Indonesia and Africa yielding limited returns [12][13]. Conclusion - The financial report for the first half of 2025 serves as a warning for Mengniu, highlighting the interconnected challenges of upstream industry cycles, core business stagnation, and strategic execution delays [14]. - To navigate through the industry downturn, Mengniu needs to establish more flexible milk sourcing mechanisms and enhance its core business through innovation and product differentiation [14].