Investment Highlights - Company is initiating coverage on Tongguan Gold (00340) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 3.52, focusing on its operations in the Tongguan and Subei mining areas [1] - The company emphasizes exploration and resource expansion, holding a total gold resource of 55.0 tons with an average grade of 8.26 g/t, expecting gold sales of 2.8 tons and 3.4 tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] - The acquisition of Xi'an Hongshang, a mining engineering supplier, is anticipated to lower production costs through industry chain integration [1] Strategic Investment and Growth Potential - Zijin Mining's strategic investment, acquiring 3.82% of the company through its subsidiary, reflects confidence in the company's asset quality and strategic direction, with a cash prepayment of USD 25 million [1] - The collaboration with Zijin is expected to enhance the company's cash flow and provide potential for future mergers and acquisitions [1] Market Trends and Price Predictions - The decline in real interest rates and the trend of central bank gold purchases are expected to support rising gold prices, with the Chinese central bank restarting gold purchases in November 2024 [2] - The company is positioned to exceed market expectations in gold production growth due to its focus on exploration and resource expansion [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected EPS for the company is HKD 0.16 and HKD 0.23 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of 121% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - The current valuation corresponds to 17.3 times and 11.6 times the earnings for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price reflecting a 30% upside from the current stock price [2]
潼关黄金(00340.HK)：坚定推进勘探增储战略 内生外延增长动能强劲