国信证券：基于中债利率的估值框架作用显现 年内港股上行空间增加

Group 1: Core Views - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance is improving overseas liquidity, which is beneficial for the Hong Kong stock market [1][2] - The risk premium framework based on Chinese bond rates is systematically taking effect, allowing for further upward potential in the Hong Kong stock market [1][4] - The target price for the Hong Kong stock market in 2025 has been raised to 29,000 points based on weighted risk premium calculations [1][4] Group 2: A-shares Insights - The risk premium model for A-shares suggests an upper limit for the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,900 points for 2025 and 5,300 points for 2026, significantly higher than historical P/E ratio estimates of 3,650-4,000 points [3] - Recent index increases despite earnings downgrades indicate that A-shares are currently driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Performance - In September, the Hang Seng Index outperformed the A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 7.1% and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 13.9% [4] - Key sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and raw materials are expected to benefit from ongoing trends and market conditions [4]