“早苗经济学”：“安倍经济学”的2.0版本？

Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]