澳矿企为何敢逆势抬价？这场中澳铁矿石博弈谁在冒险？

Core Viewpoint - Australian mining companies, including BHP, are maintaining a long-term contract price of $109.5 per ton for iron ore until 2025, while refusing to accept payments in RMB despite falling spot prices [1][4]. Group 1: Pricing Dynamics - Domestic steel companies require iron ore prices to drop below $100 to use RMB for transactions, which would result in an additional annual cost of over $20 billion for these companies if prices remain high [3]. - Steel companies are currently at a breakeven point with iron ore prices around $80, and most are profitable when prices fall to $70, indicating that prices above $100 significantly squeeze their margins [3]. Group 2: Market Response - China Mineral Resources Group plans to halt purchases of BHP's dollar-denominated iron ore by September 2025, shifting to other Australian suppliers that accept RMB payments [3]. - Brazil has also begun accepting RMB for transactions with China, indicating a shift in trade dynamics that could pressure Australian miners to either lower prices or accept RMB payments to maintain market access [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The strong interdependence in iron ore trade between China and Australia suggests that Australian companies risk losing market share and facing economic downturns if they do not address pricing and payment method disputes with China [3][4]. - The current rigid stance of Australian mining companies may lead to a loss of business opportunities in the large Chinese market, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and adaptation to new trading rules for long-term cooperation [4].