Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-07 02:56Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, an increase of $600 or nearly 14% from the previous estimate of $4,300, driven by a 17% rise in gold prices since August 26 due to "sticky" fund inflows, primarily from Western ETFs and central bank purchases [1][2] Group 1: Fund Inflows - The recent surge in gold prices is mainly attributed to two types of "sticky" fund inflows: Western ETF investments and central bank purchases, contrasting with stable speculative positions [2] - Western ETF holdings have fully reached Goldman Sachs' implied valuation level based on U.S. interest rates, indicating that the recent strong performance of ETFs is not an overreaction [2] - Central bank purchases have rebounded, reflecting a recovery after the summer lull, with expectations of continued growth in central bank buying [2][3] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risks - Despite the higher starting point, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 23% price increase by the end of 2026, with central bank purchases contributing 19 percentage points and ETF inflows from Federal Reserve rate cuts contributing 5 percentage points [3][4] - The risk for the upgraded gold price forecast remains skewed to the upside, driven by private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market, which may push ETF holdings beyond implied valuations based on interest rates [3] - Structural growth in central bank purchases is expected to continue, particularly from emerging market central banks diversifying their reserves into gold [3][4]