Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-07 03:16Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is raising concerns about political uncertainty in the market [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. political strategist, Alec Phillips, believes the deadlock will likely end with some form of concession from Trump, leading to a temporary reopening of the government [1][3] - The probability of the government shutdown lasting at least another 10 days has risen to 75% according to Polymarket [1] Group 1: Government Shutdown Dynamics - The government shutdown may last for several weeks but is unlikely to extend beyond the military pay date of October 15, as missing military salaries has never been allowed [2][3] - Phillips anticipates that the House and Senate will vote every couple of days, with the key issue being how many Democrats will shift their stance to support reopening the government [2] - Currently, three Democrats have shown willingness to support reopening, with five more needed for a majority [2] Group 2: Healthcare Subsidy Legislation - The expiration of healthcare subsidy legislation is a critical issue, with the Affordable Care Act (ACA) set to announce premium increases on November 1 [3] - Democrats are pushing to include the extension of these subsidies in the spending bill, while Republicans favor a "clean" extension without additional conditions [3] - Goldman Sachs notes that even if a bipartisan compromise is reached, Republicans may later attempt to roll back spending through a simple majority vote, undermining trust in any agreements made [3]