KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-08 15:14Core Insights - The traditional distribution model in the liquor industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to digital transformation and changing consumer preferences, leading to a critical need for channel reform [2][4][10] Industry Challenges - The long-standing "manufacturer-distributor-retailer-consumer" model is becoming a burden, with distributors feeling like mere "warehouse keepers" as inventory approaches critical levels [2] - The consumption of liquor is declining at an annual rate of 3%-5%, driven by a shift towards quality over quantity, necessitating urgent changes in distribution strategies [4] Trends Reshaping the Liquor Channel - Direct Control by Manufacturers: High-end liquor brands are increasingly adopting direct sales strategies, with the proportion of direct income rising from approximately 10% in 2020 to nearly 20% in 2023, particularly in ultra-premium segments [6] - Digital Transformation: The live-streaming e-commerce sector for liquor has surpassed 30 billion yuan in 2023, growing over 150% year-on-year, shifting the sales paradigm from "people finding goods" to "goods finding people" [6] - Evolution of Distributors: Distributors are transitioning from mere logistics providers to service-oriented roles, focusing on value-added services such as specialized logistics and brand experience centers [7] Competitive Dynamics - The relationship between manufacturers and distributors is being redefined, with manufacturers pushing for distributors to become market service providers while distributors seek more support from manufacturers [8] - The pricing structure is under pressure as online channels offer lower prices, leading to potential conflicts with traditional distribution networks [8] Future Outlook - The liquor distribution landscape is expected to evolve into a "dual-track" system over the next five to ten years, featuring a manufacturer-led digital direct sales model alongside localized service platforms from transformed distributors [10] - Companies that cling to outdated "inventory pressure" strategies risk obsolescence, as future competition will hinge on user engagement and understanding consumer needs [10]