大行评级丨瑞银：预测香港今明两年零售销售几近持平 维持九龙仓置业“中性”评级

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hong Kong retail sales have stabilized recently, contributing to a 13% increase in Wharf Real Estate's stock price this year [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The decline in HIBOR is driving market sentiment, as it has absorbed the recent stability in retail sales and the anticipated profit rebound, projected to be between 2% and 9% for 2025 to 2026 [1] - Despite the short-term stabilization, long-term challenges persist, primarily due to the rebound in outbound tourism by Hong Kong residents, more convenient tax refund arrangements from the mainland, and intensified competition among high-end shopping malls [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - UBS has adjusted its earnings per share estimates for Wharf Real Estate for the years 2025 to 2027 upwards by 4% to 8% based on HIBOR assumptions [1] - The company maintains a cautious outlook, predicting that retail sales in Hong Kong are unlikely to see strong growth in the next two years, with expectations of retail sales remaining nearly flat [1]