对于香港地产股，该行认为升势由于对楼市复苏信心增强。虽然该行对楼市仍持正面看法，但住宅类股 估值已完全反映全面复苏预期，例如新鸿基地产若计入股息调整后股价已达历史高位，而二手楼价指数 仍较高峰低26%。现阶段，该行认为地产收租股的风险回报更佳。首选为太古地产、恒隆地产、领展及 九龙仓置业。开发商方面，该行较青睐信和置地及恒基地产。 摩根大通发表报告指，内房股近期升势主要由于政策预期升温所推动，跑赢大市表现可能持续至11月底 或12月的下一次政府会议。目前行业基本面显示新政策支持的概率正在上升。该行首选仍然是华润置 地、华润万象生活及中国金茂。在政策带动的反弹中，该行认为龙湖具备最佳风险回报比。 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks showed a positive trend, closing up 0.85% as bulls took control, indicating a lack of negative news is perceived as positive [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on a compromise plan to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which could restore funding to government agencies [1] - The ADP private sector employment report for October showed a decrease of 45,000 jobs, the largest drop in two and a half years, suggesting a cooling labor market and increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut in December [1] Sector Performance - The banking sector saw a rebound with major banks like Agricultural Bank of China reaching new highs, driven by long-term investments from insurance funds and public funds [1] - Consumer sectors are gaining traction, with companies like "Hushang Auntie" seeing a significant increase of nearly 29%, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [2] - Retail sales in Hong Kong are projected to rise by 4% year-on-year in October, benefiting retail rental stocks [3] Company Highlights - Baijie Shenzhou reported a 44.2% increase in total revenue for the first three quarters, driven by sales growth of its self-developed products [3] - Xiaomi announced a significant sales figure of over 29 billion yuan during the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating strong consumer demand [4] - The Ximangdu iron ore project, with reserves exceeding 4.4 billion tons, has commenced production, potentially altering the global iron ore supply landscape and benefiting companies like Maanshan Iron & Steel [5] Industry Developments - The Chinese commercial aerospace sector is set to advance with the upcoming maiden flight of the reusable rocket "Zhuque-3," which aims to reduce launch costs significantly [6] - The sportswear manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with Shenzhou International projecting a 15.3% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [7] - The company has expanded its overseas production capacity, with 53% of its garment output coming from international facilities, indicating a strategic shift towards globalization [8]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 九龍倉置業地產投資有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01997 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 500,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 500,000,000 | ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong's retail sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year to HKD 31.3 billion in September, surpassing the bank's forecast of 2% growth and the market consensus of 2.6% [1] - The cumulative retail sales decline for the first nine months of the year has narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 1%, prompting Morgan Stanley to revise its full-year forecast to a 2% decline, up from the previous expectation of a 5% drop [1] - Despite a year-on-year increase of 11% in mainland visitors in October, the bank maintains a cautious outlook due to potential impacts from increased outbound tourism and rising unemployment rates [1] Retail Sector Analysis - Retail rental stocks such as Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Hysan Development Company (00014) are expected to benefit, with dividend yields ranging from 1.7% to 2.7%, which are higher than the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 4% year-on-year increase in Hong Kong's retail sales for October, primarily driven by an increase in visitor numbers during the eight-day National Day Golden Week holiday, although this may be partially offset by more public holidays leading to increased outbound travel [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong's retail sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year to HKD 31.3 billion in September, surpassing the bank's forecast of 2% growth and the market consensus of 2.6% growth [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - The cumulative decline in retail sales for the first nine months of the year has narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 1% [1] - Morgan Stanley has revised its full-year forecast for retail sales to a decrease of 2%, up from the previous expectation of a 5% decline [1] Group 2: Visitor Impact and Economic Outlook - Despite a year-on-year increase of 11% in mainland visitors in October, the rise in outbound tourism and increasing unemployment may negatively impact consumption [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious stance due to these potential challenges [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Retail rental stocks such as Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Hysan Development Company (00014) may benefit, with dividend yields ranging from 1.7% to 2.7%, which are higher than the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds [1] - The bank predicts a 4% year-on-year increase in Hong Kong's retail sales for October, primarily driven by the increase in visitor numbers during the 8-day National Day Golden Week holiday, although this may be offset by more public holidays leading to increased outbound tourism [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong's retail sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year to HKD 31.3 billion in September, surpassing the bank's forecast of 2% growth and the market consensus of 2.6% [1] - The recent positive growth may indicate that the market is bottoming out [1] - For October, Morgan Stanley predicts a 4% year-on-year increase in retail sales, primarily driven by an increase in visitor numbers during the 8-day National Day Golden Week holiday, although this is partially offset by more public holidays leading to increased travel [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has revised its full-year forecast for retail sales to a decline of 2% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous expectation of a 5% decline [1] - Retail rental stocks such as Wharf Real Estate Investment and Hysan Development may benefit from this trend, with dividend yields ranging from 1.7% to 2.7%, which is higher than the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [1]

Core Insights - The highest short-selling ratios were observed for China Resources Beer (80291) and JD Health (86618), both at 100%, followed by JD Group (89618) at 93.32% [1][2] - The top three companies by short-selling amount were Xiaomi Group (01810) at 2.156 billion, Alibaba (09988) at 2.038 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) at 1.552 billion [1][3] - JD Group (89618) had the highest deviation value at 43.55%, indicating significant short-selling activity compared to its historical average [1][2] Short-Selling Ratios - China Resources Beer (80291) and JD Health (86618) both recorded a short-selling ratio of 100% [2] - JD Group (89618) had a short-selling ratio of 93.32% [2] - Other notable companies included Anta Sports (82020) at 87.40% and BYD Company (81211) at 81.07% [2] Short-Selling Amounts - Xiaomi Group (01810) led with a short-selling amount of 2.156 billion, followed by Alibaba (09988) at 2.038 billion and Tencent Holdings (00700) at 1.552 billion [3] - Other significant amounts included Meituan (03690) at 1.461 billion and SMIC (00981) at 1.335 billion [3] Deviation Values - JD Group (89618) had the highest deviation value at 43.55%, indicating a significant difference from its average short-selling ratio [2][3] - Other companies with notable deviation values included SenseTime (80020) at 31.62% and China Resources Beer (80291) at 31.60% [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong's unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% in the third quarter, reaching a three-year high, with significant challenges in the construction and retail sectors [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the construction industry is at 7.2%, while the retail sector stands at 5.3% [1] - The unemployment rate in the restaurant industry remained stable at 6.4%, and the financial sector saw a slight improvement, increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9% [1] - The underemployment rate remained stable at 1.6% [1] Future Projections - The overall unemployment rate is expected to rise further, potentially exceeding 4% by the end of 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties and structural challenges in the restaurant and retail sectors [1] - Despite recent positive trends in retail sales, the rising unemployment rate may negatively impact consumer sentiment [1] Retail Sales Impact - Retail sales growth is projected to slow to 2% year-on-year in September [1] - High vacancy rates in office buildings may negatively affect companies like Link REIT and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS indicates that Kowloon Development (01997) is heavily reliant on the recovery of the retail market, which is expected to improve rental income and returns [1] Group 1: Rental Income and Returns - The outlook for operating rental income and return growth is improving, which is anticipated to drive rental yield growth for Kowloon Development [1] - A sustainable recovery in the retail market may lead to a higher stock valuation for Kowloon Development [1] Group 2: Debt and Interest Costs - The company's debt is primarily at floating rates, suggesting that a potential decline in HIBOR could reduce interest costs [1] Group 3: Rating and Target Price - The rating for Kowloon Development has been upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 27.7 to HKD 29 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS indicates that Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) is heavily reliant on the recovery of the retail market, which is expected to improve rental income and returns [1] Group 1: Rental Income and Returns - The outlook for operating rental income and return growth is improving, which is anticipated to drive rental yield growth for Wharf Real Estate [1] - A sustainable recovery in the retail market may lead to a higher stock valuation for Wharf Real Estate [1] Group 2: Debt and Interest Costs - The company's debt is primarily at floating rates, suggesting that a potential decline in HIBOR could reduce interest costs [1] Group 3: Rating and Target Price - The rating for Wharf Real Estate has been upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 27.7 to HKD 29 [1]