小摩大根发布研报称，或受到多家券商将香港今年房价增长预测上调至5%至10%所推动，今年以来， 香港地产股已飙升11%，表现胜恒生指数6%。 小摩首选恒隆地产(00101)和太古地产(01972)，因该两只股票在内地的零售业务持续改。若九龙仓置业 (01997)管理层在今年3月的业绩发布会上，对租户销售前景表态转为更积极，也有可能成为一匹黑马。 在发展商中，小摩则偏好信和置业(00083)和恒基地产(00012)，但总体上建议等待更好的入场时机。 小摩表示，考虑到多家公司的股价已达到或接近历史高点，相信市场已消化了香港楼市在未来两年的稳 固复苏。在此关口，小摩认为收租股潜在上行空间更大，因其商业地产业务的改善尚未被完全反映在股 价中，其大多数股价仍比高峰低30%以上。 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that the Hong Kong residential market is expected to bottom out by mid-2025, with a recovery anticipated to strengthen in 2026, extending to the CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] - The report forecasts a 5% to 10% increase in Hong Kong residential prices in 2026, followed by a further 5% increase in 2027 [1] - The valuation of the sector is believed to have normalized, leading to a more moderate price increase outlook [1] Group 2 - The company has raised target prices for several stocks by an average of 8% to reflect a stronger outlook for residential prices and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook for "buy" ratings on Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101), while reiterating a "underperform" rating for MTR Corporation (00066) due to its large capital expenditure plans [1] - The report identifies potential catalysts for Hang Lung Properties, Henderson Land (00012), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997) in the first quarter [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that developers have already factored in a 5% to 10% increase in residential prices when comparing current residential prices and stock prices to 2021 [1] - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility after earnings announcements [1] Group 4 - The report indicates that the rebound in earnings will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record a significant earnings rebound for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are projected to lead the earnings rebound for developers from 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America forecasts that the Hong Kong residential market will bottom out in mid-2025, with a recovery expected to strengthen in 2026, extending to CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Residential prices in Hong Kong are expected to rise by 5% to 10% in 2026 and by 5% in 2027 [1] - The bank believes that sector valuations have normalized, anticipating a moderate increase in prices [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The bank has raised target prices for several companies by an average of 8% to reflect stronger residential price outlook and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The bank maintains a "buy" rating for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101) [1] - MTR Corporation (00066) is reiterated with an "underperform" rating due to low likelihood of significant dividend increases amid large capital expenditure plans [1] Group 4: Potential Catalysts - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and plans to increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land Development (00012) will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility post-earnings announcement [1] - Wharf Holdings (01997) is projected to see a 7% increase in dividends for the fiscal year 2025, supported by a decline in HIBOR and rising excess rents [1] Group 5: Earnings Recovery - The bank believes that earnings recovery will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land Development expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record significant earnings rebound in fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are anticipated to lead the earnings rebound for developers from fiscal years 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美银发表研究报告指，随着香港住宅市场于2025年中触底，预期复苏将于2026年加 强，并扩展至CBD办公室及高端零售板块。该行预期2026年香港住宅价格上升5至10%，2027年上升 5%。 美银认为，板块估值已正常化，料迎来较温和的升幅。该行平均上调多个目标价8%，以反映更强劲的 住宅价格展望及资本化率下调50个基点至4.5至5.25%。 基于未来3年实体市场复苏带动的盈利反弹潜力，该行看好"买入"评级的长江实业(01113)、太古地产 (01972)及恒隆地产(00101)，并重申对港铁(00066)的"跑输大市"评级，因其庞大资本开支计划下大幅上 调股息的可能性低。该行认为恒隆地产、恒基地产(00012)及九龙仓置业(01997)于第一季度具事件催化 剂。 美银表示，将当前住宅价格及股价与2021年对比，估计发展商已计入5至10%的住宅价格增长，而业主 股价仍远低于其盈利跌幅。该行重点提及三只具第一季度潜在事件催化剂的股份： 1)恒隆地产预计公布新的新加坡物业基金；与此同时，预期公司将至少增加2亿美元的股份回购；2)投 资者对恒基地产2025财年股息是否下调意见分歧，这可能于业绩公布 ...

对于香港写字楼今年展望，大摩预计中环租金上涨3%，整体写字楼租金预计下跌3%。 大摩仍建议避开九龙仓置业，因其面临市占率流失及租客留存风险等挑战，例如阿里巴巴(09988)在10 月收购铜锣湾甲级商厦"港岛壹号中心"后，将从时代广场搬迁出去。此外，内地免税购物及入境旅游的 增长，可能对主要商场的奢侈品销售造成冲击。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，在香港地产股中更偏好写字楼板块而非零售领域，虽然写字楼空置率仍处于高 位，但正在改善，并认为中环区域将率先受益。商场租金则仍然承压，主要受到线上销售及深圳市场竞 争的影响。更青睐具备股息率高且可持续、具有自我改善潜力的股票。 香港写字楼方面，大摩偏好中环多于非核心区域，香港置地、希慎兴业(00014)优于九龙仓置业 (01997)。零售方面则偏好内地奢侈品零售股多于香港零售股，其中恒隆地产(00101)优于九龙仓置业及 领展房产基金(00823)；太古地产(01972)优于九龙仓置业。 ...

對於香港寫字樓今年展望，大摩預計中環租金上漲3%，整體寫字樓租金預計下跌3%。 香港寫字樓方面，大摩偏好中環多於非核心區域，香港置地、希慎興業(00014)優於九龍倉置業 (01997)。零售方面則偏好內地奢侈品零售股多於香港零售股，其中恆隆地產(00101)優於九龍倉置業及 領展房產基金(00823)；太古地產(01972)優於九龍倉置業。 智通財經APP獲悉，摩根士丹利發佈研報稱，在香港地產股中更偏好寫字樓板塊而非零售領域，雖然寫 字樓空置率仍處於高位，但正在改善，並認爲中環區域將率先受益。商場租金則仍然承壓，主要受到線 上銷售及深圳市場競爭的影響。更青睞具備股息率高且可持續、具有自我改善潛力的股票。 大摩仍建議避開九龍倉置業，因其面臨市佔率流失及租客留存風險等挑戰，例如阿里巴巴(09988)在10 月收購銅鑼灣甲級商廈"港島壹號中心"後，將從時代廣場搬遷出去。此外，內地免稅購物及入境旅遊的 增長，可能對主要商場的奢侈品銷售造成衝擊。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 九龍倉置業地產投資有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01997 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 500,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 500,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 50 ...

小摩表示，11月零售轻微放缓，或部分由于11月底大埔宏福苑大火影响情绪。该行料香港12月零售销售 录低至中单位数增长(意味轻微放缓)，因电子产品强劲升势或减退;12月入境旅客同比增幅轻微放缓;大 埔火灾持续影响消费情绪。不过，该行料零售消费续受(1)股市楼市带来财富效应;及(2)港元贬值所支 撑。 摩根大通发布研报称，香港去年11月零售销货价值同比升6.5%，与10月表现(升6.9%)相若，并维持温和 复苏趋势。期内非必需消费品(升11%)跑赢必需品(升2%)，主因电子产品(升39%)格外强劲的升幅，倘撇 除电子产品，11月零售销货价值同比仍升2.1%(10月则升3.2%)。 该行维持对九龙仓置业(01997)的建设性看法，评级"增持"，因有迹象显示非必需零售走出谷底;但对领 展房产基金(00823)维持"中性"评级，因去年11月香港超市销售同比跌2%，作为领展租户销售的替代指 标，意味领展续面对来自跨境电商如拼多多(PDD.US)的竞争加剧。 ...

小摩表示，11月零售轻微放缓，或部分由于11月底大埔宏福苑大火影响情绪。该行料香港12月零售销售 录低至中单位数增长(意味轻微放缓)，因电子产品强劲升势或减退;12月入境旅客同比增幅轻微放缓;大 埔火灾持续影响消费情绪。不过，该行料零售消费续受(1)股市楼市带来财富效应;及(2)港元贬值所支 撑。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，香港去年11月零售销货价值同比升6.5%，与10月表现(升 6.9%)相若，并维持温和复苏趋势。期内非必需消费品(升11%)跑赢必需品(升2%)，主因电子产品(升 39%)格外强劲的升幅，倘撇除电子产品，11月零售销货价值同比仍升2.1%(10月则升3.2%)。 该行维持对九龙仓置业(01997)的建设性看法，评级"增持"，因有迹象显示非必需零售走出谷底;但对领 展房产基金(00823)维持"中性"评级，因去年11月香港超市销售同比跌2%，作为领展租户销售的替代指 标，意味领展续面对来自跨境电商如拼多多(PDD.US)的竞争加剧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kowloon Warehouse Properties (01997) experienced a decline of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 24.16 with a transaction volume of HKD 27.19 million [1] Group 1: Retail Industry Performance - The Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department reported that the provisional estimate for total retail sales value in November 2025 was HKD 33.7 billion, representing a 6.5% increase compared to the same month in 2024 [1] - The revised estimate for total retail sales value in October 2025 showed a 6.9% increase compared to October 2024 [1] - The Chairman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association, Cheung Kiu On-yee, anticipates that retail sales in the first half of 2026 will remain stable, with continued spending from residents traveling to the mainland [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - JPMorgan indicated a slight slowdown in retail sales in November, potentially influenced by the emotional impact of the fire at Hong Fu Court in Tai Po at the end of November [1] - The bank expects December retail sales to show low to mid-single-digit growth, reflecting a slight slowdown due to a potential decline in the strong momentum of electronic products and a minor slowdown in the year-on-year growth of inbound tourists [1] - Despite the challenges, the bank believes retail consumption will continue to benefit from the wealth effect driven by the stock and property markets, as well as support from the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar [1] - JPMorgan maintains a constructive view on Kowloon Warehouse Properties, rating it as "Overweight," citing signs that non-essential retail is emerging from a trough [1]