苹果股价，能讲出“印度叙事”？

Core Insights - The iPhone 17 series has seen explosive sales in India, with long queues and significant consumer enthusiasm at launch events [1] - India is becoming a crucial market for Apple, with long-term growth potential despite currently contributing only 2% to Apple's overall revenue [1][2] - Apple's sales in India are projected to reach nearly $9 billion in FY2025, marking a 13% increase from the previous year [2] Market Dynamics - The Indian smartphone market is experiencing a shift towards high-end devices, with the ultra-premium segment (>45,000 INR) growing by 37% year-on-year [7] - Apple's market share in India has increased from 6% to 11% between Q3 2023 and Q4 2024, positioning it among the top five smartphone brands in the country [8] - The demand for high-end smartphones in India is driven by a young population and rising disposable income, which has increased by approximately 1.59 times from 2013 to 2023 [2][5] Competitive Landscape - Samsung's S series has performed well, but its overall shipments have declined due to challenges in the mid-range segment, highlighting the strong demand for premium devices [9] - Apple's brand positioning remains strong in India, with its products seen as status symbols, similar to its early years in China [9][17] Supply Chain and Manufacturing - Apple is expanding its manufacturing capabilities in India, with plans for local production of the iPhone 17 models, marking a significant shift in its supply chain strategy [11] - By FY2025, the value of iPhones manufactured in India is expected to reach $22 billion, with a production increase of nearly 60% [11] - Despite the growth, challenges remain, including lower labor quality and reliance on imports for key components, which could impact production efficiency [14][15] Economic Impact - The Indian market is seen as a potential buffer for Apple's valuation, with expectations that high growth rates in India could offset declines in other regions [18] - The strong performance of the Indian capital market reflects confidence in the country's economic growth, which could positively influence Apple's stock valuation as its revenue from India increases [18]