Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities projects that Maogeping (01318) will achieve net profits of 1.19 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.94 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.5% over three years, leading to a target price of 124.4 HKD and a "strong buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1%, meeting market expectations [2] Profitability - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 84.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 25.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points. The sales and management expense ratios were 45.2% and 5.3%, respectively, showing a decrease of 2.4 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points [3] Business Segmentation by Brand - Revenue breakdown shows 55% from color cosmetics, 42% from skincare, 3% from makeup artistry training, and 0.4% from fragrances. Specifically, color cosmetics generated 1.42 billion yuan (+31%) with a gross margin of 82.7%, skincare brought in 1.09 billion yuan (+33%) with a gross margin of 87.5%, makeup artistry training earned 70 million yuan with a gross margin of 62.9%, and fragrances generated 11 million yuan with a gross margin of 77.6% [4] Business Segmentation by Channel - Revenue distribution indicates 47% from offline sales and 50% from online sales. Offline revenue was 1.22 billion yuan (+27%) with a gross margin of 85.7%, while online revenue reached 1.297 billion yuan (+39%) with a gross margin of 83.9% [5] Brand Development - The company has expanded into the fragrance market with the launch of two high-end perfume series, "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang." It is also enhancing its brand image by opening flagship stores in key urban areas and entering high-end department stores, indicating a strong commitment to high-end brand positioning [6] Investment Recommendation - As a benchmark for high-end domestic cosmetics, the company has a strong brand moat and is experiencing steady growth driven by both color cosmetics and skincare. The successful expansion into fragrances demonstrates potential for multi-category development. The rapid growth of online channels and the strengthening of offline channels through experiential services indicate a healthy dual-channel synergy [7]
华创证券：维持毛戈平(01318)“强推”评级 目标价124.4港元