Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities projects that Maogeping (01318) will achieve a net profit of 1.19 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.94 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.5% over three years, leading to a target price of 124.4 HKD and a "strong buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1%, meeting market expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 84.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 25.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points [2] Cost Management - The sales and management expense ratios were 45.2% and 5.3%, respectively, showing a decrease of 2.4 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points [2] - Despite an increase in marketing and promotional expenses to 540 million yuan, the company effectively controlled the sales expense ratio, contributing to the improvement in net profit margin [2] Revenue Breakdown by Product Category - The revenue composition by brand shows 55% from color cosmetics, 42% from skincare, 3% from makeup artistry training, and 0.4% from fragrances [2] - Color cosmetics generated 1.42 billion yuan in revenue, up 31%, with a gross margin of 82.7% [2] - Skincare revenue reached 1.09 billion yuan, a 33% increase, with a gross margin of 87.5% [2] Revenue Breakdown by Channel - Revenue by channel indicates 47% from offline sales and 50% from online sales [3] - Offline revenue was 1.22 billion yuan, a 27% increase, with a gross margin of 85.7% [3] - Online revenue reached 1.297 billion yuan, up 39%, with a gross margin of 83.9% [3] Brand Development and Market Positioning - The company has expanded into the fragrance market with the launch of two high-end perfume series, enhancing its brand image and positioning [4] - The opening of a flagship store in a core business district of Hangzhou and entry into high-end department stores like Beijing SKP further solidifies the brand's high-end positioning [4] Future Growth Potential - The company has significant room for SKU expansion and improvement in store efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [4] - The dual-channel strategy of online and offline sales is showing healthy collaborative growth, with the potential for continued momentum [5]
华创证券：维持毛戈平“强推”评级 目标价124.4港元