PDH(SH:600048) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-09 21:27Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market experienced a mixed performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival period, with new projects seeing increased visitor numbers and sales, while the second-hand housing market remained sluggish [2][8]. New Housing Market - Multiple new housing projects launched promotional activities during the holiday, such as Poly Development's "11-project linkage" event, attracting over 4,000 groups of visitors and achieving a sales volume of 1.28 billion yuan [3][4]. - The "Six-project linkage" strategy by China National Trade also contributed to increased foot traffic and sales, with various incentives offered to buyers [3]. - The "Zhaoshang Shidai Chaopai" project reported daily visits of over 40 groups, resulting in 16 successful purchases during the holiday [4]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a significant decline, with only 780 transactions recorded during the holiday, a drop of over 63% compared to the same period in 2024 [8]. - The average daily transaction volume was only 111 units, indicating a prolonged negotiation period between buyers and sellers [9]. - Despite the decline, the overall performance of the second-hand market showed resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 17.6% in transactions compared to the previous year [8]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to remain cautiously optimistic for the fourth quarter, driven by the recovery in the new housing market and upcoming supply plans [11]. - The introduction of the "Six Policies" aimed at addressing structural issues in the market has positively impacted sales, with new housing transactions increasing significantly in September [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that while further policy adjustments may not be necessary, a potential reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) could be anticipated, which may boost market confidence [13].