Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-10-09 23:39Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) situation during the traditional demand peak season, with prices under pressure due to oversupply and weak consumption [1][2]. Market Performance - The national mainstream transaction price for live pigs is running between 11.0 to 12.6 yuan/kg, with prices in the Sichuan-Chongqing region dropping below 11 yuan/kg [1]. - On October 9, live pig futures opened lower, with the main contract hitting a low of 11,535 yuan/ton, down 5.88% by midday [1]. - Trading volume increased to over 50,000 lots, a growth of more than 30% compared to September 30 [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the simultaneous decline in both futures and spot prices reflects a pessimistic market outlook regarding future supply and demand dynamics [1]. - The current supply pressure is expected to persist, with the national pig output maintaining an upward trend due to high breeding sow inventory levels [2][3]. Policy and Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is actively promoting high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing strict capacity control measures [2]. - Despite positive policy signals, the actual pace of capacity reduction is slower than expected, with breeding sow inventory remaining above the target adjustment level [2]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current pig prices are in a bottoming phase, with short-term pressures from strong supply and weak demand [3]. - The potential for a seasonal rebound in Q4 will depend on the weight of pigs at market release; a decrease in weight could alleviate supply pressure and allow for price recovery, albeit with limited upward potential [3][4].