JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-10 00:48Core Insights - Despite a strong rebound in US stocks since April, overall investor sentiment remains cautious rather than euphoric [1][2] - JPMorgan analysts indicate that the current market rally is driven more by investors "chasing the trend" rather than excessive optimism [1][3] Market Positioning - JPMorgan's unique market sentiment indicator shows that investor positioning has been unexpectedly cautious, even "bearish," since early May [2][3] - This indicator turned negative in early May and peaked negatively by the end of June, indicating that investors found their positions to be more bearish than desired [3][4] Investor Behavior - As of early September, key participants such as hedge funds and speculative investors have not reached high stock exposure levels, reflecting a continued cautious sentiment [5][6] - Macro hedge funds' stock beta remains in a "moderate negative" range, while speculative investors' net long positions in US stock index futures have returned to near long-term median levels [5][6] Multi-Asset Fund Dynamics - The behavior of multi-asset investors shows a complex sentiment, with balanced funds' stock beta falling below average levels in recent weeks [7][8] - Risk parity funds exhibited more volatility, with their stock beta dropping below average in early April, rising above average in early August, and then falling again by the end of September [8]