海通国际：双节前消费与备货意愿不强 速冻食品、软饮料等行业保持个位数增长

Core Insights - The report from Haitong International predicts that among the eight essential consumer sectors tracked in September 2025, five will maintain positive growth while three will experience negative growth [1] - Consumer sentiment ahead of the double festival is weak, with post-festival statistics indicating that goods consumption is lagging behind service consumption, with growth rates of 3.9% and 7.6% respectively, leading to an overall growth rate of 4.5% [1] Group 1: Alcoholic Beverages - The revenue for the mid-to-high-end liquor sector in September was 44.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 308.2 billion yuan, down 1.6% [1] - The revenue for the mass-market liquor sector in September was 12.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.4%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 145.8 billion yuan, down 9.7% [2] Group 2: Beer and Soft Drinks - The beer industry generated revenue of 14.9 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 142.6 billion yuan, up 0.4% [2] - The soft drink industry reported revenue of 66.3 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 572.8 billion yuan, up 4.4% [3] Group 3: Dairy and Frozen Foods - The dairy industry had revenue of 45.5 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 353.1 billion yuan, down 1.2% [3] - The frozen food sector reported revenue of 7.8 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 80.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% [3] Group 4: Condiments and Dining - The condiment industry generated revenue of 36.3 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 335 billion yuan, up 1.8% [3] - The dining sector's total revenue for listed companies was 15.7 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with cumulative revenue from January to September at 131.9 billion yuan, down 0.7% [4]