Shanghai Jahwa(SH:600315) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-10 14:16Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the growth of local Chinese beauty brands during the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival, predicting that brands like Shanghai Jahwa and Mao Geping will lead the high-growth tier [2]. Group 1: GMV Targets and Growth Expectations - Tmall/Taobao aims for a total GMV growth of 20%-25% (approximately 600 billion), with the beauty category expected to grow around 20% [2]. - Douyin is projected to achieve over 40% GMV growth across the platform, with the beauty category exceeding 30%, making it a key growth driver [3]. - Tmall's promotional efforts are more aggressive than previous events, while Douyin continues to attract brand investments through content e-commerce and live streaming advantages [3]. Group 2: Promotional Period Extensions - The promotional period for Double 11 has been extended significantly this year, with Douyin extending by 22 days, starting pre-sales on September 16 [4]. - JD.com has extended its promotional period by 8 days, while Tmall has added 2 days, with pre-sales starting on October 15 [5]. Group 3: Brand Performance Insights - Local leading brands are expected to outperform the industry, with high-growth brands like Mao Geping (40%-50%) and Shanghai Jahwa showing strong potential [6]. - Multinational high-end brands like Lancôme and Estée Lauder are expected to grow between 10%-30%, while mass-market brands face pressure with growth below 10% [7]. Group 4: KOL Trends and Strategies - The trend is shifting towards mid-tier KOLs, with Douyin directing traffic towards them, resulting in reduced commission rates for brands [8]. - Both local and multinational brands are adopting a dual strategy of collaborating with both top-tier and mid-tier KOLs to enhance reach and conversion efficiency [8]. Group 5: Industry Dynamics and Consumer Experience - The Double 11 event is seen as an accelerator for industry differentiation, with local brands gaining market share through live streaming and product innovation [8]. - Consumers will benefit from a longer promotional period, lower prices, and simplified rules, while investors should focus on high-growth local leaders and established multinational brands [8].