ASML Holding(US:ASML) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-10 14:14Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the opportunities following ASML's Q3 2025 earnings release outweigh the risks, with market focus likely shifting to FY27 after the earnings announcement [1] Group 1: Earnings Risks and Market Sentiment - ASML's stock has dropped 43% since the last earnings meeting, where the company expressed uncertainty about growth for 2026 [2] - Two main risks identified for the upcoming earnings are lower-than-expected order volumes for Q3 2025 and guidance for FY26 that may fall short of market expectations [2] - Morgan Stanley's conservative outlook for Q3 2025 orders is due to ASML's cautious tone, although they anticipate strong orders from TSMC in the latter half of the quarter, contingent on Samsung's actions [2] Group 2: Q3 Earnings Forecast - ASML is expected to report Q3 earnings on October 15, with revenue projected at €7.568 billion, reflecting a 1.6% quarter-over-quarter decline and a 1.3% year-over-year increase [4] - Order volume is anticipated to reach €3.92 billion, which is 21.1% lower than Bloomberg consensus, indicating a conservative stance [4] - Gross margin is expected to be 51.1%, aligning with market consensus, while EBIT is projected at €2.331 billion, 3.4% below consensus [4]