HKEX(HK:00388) Ge Long Hui·2025-10-10 20:13Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is at a critical juncture, with its stock price at 457.2 HKD as of October 9, reflecting a 2.74% increase, and is currently navigating key technical levels [1] Technical Analysis - The short-term moving average (MA10) is at 443.36 HKD, closely aligned with MA30 at 444.17 HKD and MA60 at 439.92 HKD, indicating the market is seeking a clear direction [1] - The current price is within a crucial technical range, facing resistance at 459 HKD and support at 439 HKD [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51, indicating a neutral market sentiment, while several oscillators show mild bullish signals, suggesting potential buying opportunities [1] - The Average Directional Index (ADX) indicates limited trend strength, implying that a breakout requires additional momentum [1] Support and Resistance Levels - Major support is identified at 439 HKD, with secondary support at 433 HKD; resistance is at 459 HKD, with the next target at 468 HKD upon a breakout [3] - The recent five-day volatility of HKEX is 2.8%, providing a relatively stable reference for investors [3] Derivative Products Performance - Recent performance of derivative products shows significant leverage; for instance, when HKEX's stock fell by 0.62%, Morgan Stanley's bear certificate rose by 7% and UBS's bear certificate increased by 8% [3] - High-leverage options include Bank of China call warrant 17568 with 9.5x leverage and UBS call warrant 17736 with 9.2x leverage, both having an exercise price of 530.5 HKD [6] - For cautious investors, Bank of China put warrant 19860 offers 8.5x leverage, while UBS put warrant 19854 provides 8.3x leverage, both with an exercise price of 387.8 HKD [6] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish investors, Morgan Stanley's bull certificate 56785 offers 15.7x leverage with a recovery price of 426 HKD, while another option, Morgan Stanley's bull certificate 66112, provides 14x leverage with a recovery price of 422 HKD [8] - For bearish investors, Société Générale's bear certificate 60816 offers 19.9x leverage with a recovery price of 470 HKD, and UBS's bear certificate 60541 provides 19.5x leverage with a similar recovery price [8] Summary - Overall, HKEX shows a mildly bullish short-term technical outlook, but effective breakthroughs require volume support [11]