Tesla(US:TSLA) Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-10-11 00:31Core Insights - Global electric vehicle (EV) demand is weakening, prompting major automakers like Nissan, Tesla, Hyundai, Ford, and General Motors to significantly reduce prices to stimulate consumption [1][6] - The competition in the global EV market is intensifying, leading to expectations of continued price declines for electric vehicles in the future [1][8] Nissan's Third-Generation Leaf - Nissan announced the launch of its third-generation Leaf on October 17, with a starting price of approximately 5.2 million yen (around 243,000 RMB) in Japan, potentially dropping to 4.3 million yen (around 200,000 RMB) after government subsidies [1][3] - A lower-priced version with reduced battery capacity is planned for release in February next year, priced at around 3.5 million yen (approximately 163,000 RMB) [1][3] - The new Leaf boasts a range of 700 km, an increase of 250 km from the previous model, and can charge from 10% to 80% in 35 minutes [3] Market Comparison - Competitors' pricing and range: Hyundai's IONIQ 5 Voyage is priced at 5.236 million yen (approximately 248,000 RMB) with a range of 703 km, while BYD's Seal is priced at 5.28 million yen (approximately 246,000 RMB) with a range of 640 km [3][4] - Tesla's Model 3 Long Range AWD is priced at 6.219 million yen (approximately 291,000 RMB) with a range of 766 km [3] Japanese EV Market Dynamics - Electric vehicles accounted for only 1.9% of total car sales in Japan as of August, significantly lower than Norway (81.5%) and China (54.9%) [3][4] - Despite the low market share, Nissan and competitors see substantial growth potential in Japan, with promotional activities ramping up [4] Price Reductions by Competitors - Hyundai plans to offer discounts of up to 1.58 million yen (approximately 73,700 RMB) on the IONIQ 5, potentially lowering its price to around 3 million yen (approximately 140,000 RMB) [4] - BYD is also providing discounts of up to 1.17 million yen (approximately 54,600 RMB) and plans to introduce a K-Car in Japan next year [4] Tesla's Strategy in the U.S. Market - Tesla has introduced a new Model Y in the U.S. with a starting price of $39,990 (approximately 285,000 RMB), a reduction of $5,000 (approximately 35,000 RMB) from the previous lowest version [6] - This price cut follows the removal of a $7,500 (approximately 53,400 RMB) tax credit, which had previously increased the effective price of models like the Model Y by about 20% [6] - Tesla's market share in the U.S. has dropped below 50%, down from over 80% in 2020, prompting the need for more affordable models [6] Industry Outlook - The entry of Chinese automakers like BYD is increasing competitive pressure, while battery manufacturers like CATL are expanding production capacity globally, suggesting a long-term trend of declining EV prices [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts that while EVs will only account for 15% of global car sales this year, growth will accelerate around 2030, reaching 52% by 2040 [8] - The cessation of government subsidies is expected to impact the profitability of many automakers, leading to further industry consolidation and differentiation [9]