OpenAI万亿美元“豪赌”算力，巨头“循环融资”拉响预警，AI泡沫规模已达互联网泡沫17倍

Core Insights - Silicon Valley is engaged in a historic "bet" exceeding $1 trillion to drive the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) through partnerships with major companies like OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, and AMD [1][4] - The collaboration model involves suppliers investing in customers, raising concerns about potential market risks reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble [1][6] Investment Agreements - Nvidia has committed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, contingent on the progress of data center construction [4] - Oracle signed a $300 billion cloud services agreement to support OpenAI's computational needs [4] - AMD granted OpenAI warrants worth up to 10% of its own shares in exchange for purchasing and co-developing next-generation AI chips [4] Circular Financing Concerns - Critics label the investment model as "circular financing," where suppliers invest in customers who then purchase their products, creating a closed funding loop [6][9] - This model raises risks if AI customers cannot generate sufficient profits to sustain their purchases, potentially leading to a breakdown in the financing chain [6][9] Market Valuation and Economic Concerns - OpenAI's annual revenue is reported at $12 billion, with losses of $8 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of its $1 trillion investment strategy [9][10] - Analysts express concerns that Nvidia's transactions may be preemptively tapping into future demand, which could exacerbate risks if market cycles reverse [9][10] AI Bubble Comparisons - The current AI valuation frenzy has drawn parallels to the internet bubble, with some analysts suggesting the scale of the AI bubble is 17 times larger than that of the internet bubble [10][11] - Historical comparisons are made to Lucent Technologies, which used circular financing to boost sales before the telecom crash [10][11] Optimism vs. Skepticism - Tech executives argue that the current investments are different, viewing them as a "productive bubble" that will yield lasting technological advancements [11][12] - OpenAI's CEO emphasizes that significant capital expenditures are necessary for transformative growth, likening it to past computing revolutions [11][12] Challenges Ahead - The AI sector faces significant challenges, including a profitability gap, energy constraints, and GPU depreciation risks [13][14] - A study indicates that 95% of AI projects fail to deliver measurable profits, raising concerns about the viability of current investments [13][14] - Energy shortages could hinder AI growth, with projections indicating a need for 200 GW of AI computing power by 2030, while a 50 GW shortfall is anticipated [14][15]