成本涨、价格跌、渠道堵，东阿阿胶或陷入“三面夹击”

Core Viewpoint - Dong'e Ejiao is experiencing a decline in market confidence despite reporting revenue and profit growth, indicating deeper concerns about its business model and reliance on core products [2][3][8]. Financial Performance - Dong'e Ejiao reported a revenue of 28.45 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with its core products contributing 93.24% to total revenue, an increase from 91.5% in 2022 [9][10]. - The company announced a cash dividend of 12.69 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 8.17 billion yuan, which accounted for 99.94% of its net profit for the first half of 2025 [7][8]. - Despite the high dividend payout, the stock price fell from around 60 yuan per share in April 2025 to 47.38 yuan by October 10, 2025, marking a cumulative decline of 20.91% [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The Wind Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increased by 25.8% during the same period, contrasting sharply with Dong'e Ejiao's stock performance [5]. - The company faces significant competition from rivals like Fupai Ejiao and Tongrentang, which is impacting its market share [12][23]. Product Dependency and Innovation - Dong'e Ejiao's heavy reliance on its core product, Ejiao, raises concerns about its risk management capabilities, as over 80% of its revenue comes from Ejiao blocks and compound Ejiao syrup [9][10]. - The company has not successfully developed new growth drivers, with new products like "Royal Weichang 1619" and "Zhuangben" still in the incubation stage and projected to generate less than 10 million yuan in sales in 2024 [9][10]. Cost and Pricing Pressures - The gross margin for Ejiao and related products decreased to 74.83% in the first half of 2025, marking the first decline since 2023, primarily due to competitive and cost pressures [10][11]. - The price of donkey hides, a key raw material for Ejiao, has surged over 50% this year, exacerbating cost challenges for the company [13][15]. Inventory and Receivables - Dong'e Ejiao's inventory stood at 920 million yuan, with an increased turnover period of 198 days, indicating slower inventory movement [19]. - Accounts receivable surged by 583.32% in the first quarter of 2025, raising concerns about potential demand weakness and channel inventory issues [20][22]. Industry Trends - The overall market for Ejiao has contracted from 350 billion yuan in 2018 to 280 billion yuan in 2023, driven by high prices and doubts about product efficacy [23].