CATL(SZ:300750) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-11 13:56Core Insights - The report identifies eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft) as the core track of China's "low-altitude economy," predicting a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global urban air mobility market over the next five years [1][6] - China has transformed from a "follower" to a rule-maker in this sector, with 60% of the 17,500 global eVTOL orders by 2025 expected to come from Chinese customers [1][6] Certification Process - The certification process for eVTOLs in China is significantly faster than in Europe and the U.S., with the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) reducing the timeline to 3-4 years compared to 6-7 years in the West [2][39] - EHang's EH216-S received the world's first manned eVTOL type certificate in just three years, while AutoFlight's cargo model achieved certification in 18 months [2][39] Battery Technology - eVTOLs require higher battery performance than electric vehicles, with energy density requirements of at least 250 Wh/kg [3][39] - Chinese manufacturers like CATL and BYD have produced batteries with energy densities of 280-320 Wh/kg, significantly reducing the operational costs of eVTOLs to $0.5-$1 per seat per kilometer, which is one-fifth of helicopter costs [3][39] Market Potential - By 2030, China's low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 2 trillion RMB, tripling from 2023, with a CAGR of 25% [4][29] - The report estimates that the total addressable market (TAM) for eVTOLs, including sales, operational services, infrastructure, and battery replacement, could reach $110 billion [4][29] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests investing in battery leader CATL, likening it to "the TSMC of the eVTOL era," with a projected tenfold demand growth over the next decade [5][12] - Other notable companies include EHang, Volant, Aerofugia, and TCab, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming policy and order fulfillment waves [5][12] Infrastructure Development - Shenzhen plans to build over 1,200 takeoff and landing points and 1,000 low-altitude commercial routes by 2026, marking a significant leap in infrastructure development [8][51] - The Chinese government has made substantial progress in regulatory frameworks to support the low-altitude economy, including the establishment of a dedicated department for low-altitude economic development [47][51]