HKEX(HK:00388) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-13 04:01Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) shares fell over 4%, currently trading at 423.8 HKD with a transaction volume of 3.623 billion HKD, reflecting increased market volatility due to "gray rhino" events and escalating US-China trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Securities reported that market volatility has increased due to "gray rhino" events, indicating that short-term funds and sentiment still have room for release, suggesting a phased approach to "TACO" trading [1] - Galaxy Securities noted that the escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to a decrease in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks. However, domestic growth stabilization policies and medium to long-term measures to support the stock market are expected to gradually stabilize investor sentiment [1] - Overall, Hong Kong stock valuations are currently at a historically high level, with expectations of wide fluctuations in the market in the future [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - UBS forecasts that HKEX will announce its third-quarter results next month, predicting a year-on-year revenue and net profit growth of 43% and 53%, respectively, reaching 7.7 billion HKD and 4.8 billion HKD, setting new records [1] - UBS's forecasts are 8% and 11% higher than the general market expectations [1] - Due to market sentiment and increased participation from southbound funds, UBS has raised its average daily transaction volume forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 16%, and adjusted its earnings per share forecast for HKEX upward by 7% to 12%, maintaining a target price of 485 HKD with a "neutral" rating [1]