稀土股全线爆发 价值重估正当时？

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector has experienced a significant rebound after a collective pullback in September, with a notable increase in stock prices, raising concerns about whether high valuations may hinder further price appreciation [1][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 13, the rare earth sector surged by 9.49%, leading all popular concept sectors, with several stocks, including Baotou Steel (600010), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and China Rare Earth (000831), hitting the daily limit [1]. - Northern Rare Earth's stock has seen a year-to-date increase of over 170%, resulting in a current valuation of 75 times earnings based on a projected profit of 2.8 billion yuan for the year [1][20]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Despite the strong performance in the secondary market, the rare earth industry remains relatively rational, with prices for various rare earth products, except for dysprosium, showing a downward trend as of October 13 [2]. - The overall profitability of companies in the sector, such as Baotou Steel, is influenced more by steel product prices than by rare earth products, which contribute minimally to their overall revenue [3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Northern Rare Earth's profit forecast for the first three quarters is between 1.51 billion and 1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [5]. - The company's quarterly profits have shown a consistent upward trend, with estimates for the first three quarters being 430 million, 500 million, and between 580 million to 640 million yuan [6]. - Despite the increase in profits, the growth rate is considered typical for the basic materials sector and does not stand out significantly [7]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - The current valuations of rare earth companies are exceptionally high, with estimates for China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259), and Shenghe Resources (600392) at 177 times, 83 times, and 52 times, respectively [22]. - The valuation levels in the rare earth sector are notably higher than those in other basic materials industries, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [23].