中泰证券：险资规模稳步增长 银行板块凭借高股息更受青睐

Core Viewpoint - The insurance capital investment scale is steadily increasing, with a significant rise in the proportion of stock investments due to long-term interest rates declining below the preset rates of insurance products, leading to a notable increase in stock investment compared to bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Scale and Structure - As of the first half of 2025, the insurance capital scale has increased by 17.4% year-on-year to 36.2 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies accounting for 90.0% of the investment balance [2]. - In terms of investment structure, the proportions of bonds and stocks are 51.1% and 8.8% respectively, both showing year-on-year increases, with stock investment growth outpacing that of bonds [2]. - The increase in stock investment is primarily driven by long-term interest rates being lower than the preset rates of insurance products, which raises the risk of interest rate spread losses for insurance companies [2]. Group 2: Focus on Banking Stocks - Among the heavy stock investments, banking stocks have consistently held the highest proportion, reaching 47.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the second-highest sector, utilities, at 7.2% [2]. - In 2025, the proportion of banking stocks in the total number of stock purchases reached 41.9%, marking a significant increase compared to 0% in 2023 and 10.0% in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since the Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2023, policies have been introduced to promote long-term capital market participation, with insurance capital being a key focus for stable long-term funding [3]. - Regulatory optimizations are being implemented to enhance insurance companies' willingness to invest in equities, including adjustments to investment assessments and limits on equity investment ratios [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Projections - It is projected that new insurance investment funds will amount to 4.3 trillion yuan and 4.8 trillion yuan in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The expected stock investment scale is projected to account for 9.3% and 10.9% of the total new insurance investment funds in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Given the current policy and macroeconomic environment, the trend of increasing equity investment by insurance capital is expected to deepen, with banking stocks being particularly favored due to their high dividend yields [5]. - Two main investment lines in banking stocks are identified: regional banks with strong certainty and high dividend stability [5].