国元期货：钢价下行驱动不足

Group 1 - In July, domestic macroeconomic factors and cost support led to a significant increase in the black metal sector, while in August, steel prices fell but iron ore and coking coal prices showed resilience [1] - The official manufacturing PMI for July, August, and September was 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8% respectively, indicating a weakening trend below the 50% mark [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, with strong market expectations regarding fiscal deficit rates and real estate policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The crude steel supply will enter a phase of environmental production limits and production willingness competition, with a cumulative crude steel output of 67.18 million tons from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [2] - Northern regions will face regular and differentiated environmental production limits as winter approaches, which will be a major factor in suppressing steel supply in the fourth quarter [2] - Demand for construction steel is expected to decline significantly due to reduced outdoor construction activities in northern regions, while southern regions will also see weakened overall demand [2] Group 3 - Due to high tariffs set by the U.S., China's direct steel exports to the U.S. have become minimal, shifting focus to markets like Vietnam and South Korea, thus limiting the direct impact of new U.S. tariffs on steel prices [3] - The core market contradiction is expected to shift from "weak reality" to a competition between winter environmental production limits and year-end demand surges, leading to a wide fluctuation in domestic steel prices [3]